#readwise # The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic About Crimea  ## Metadata - Author: [[William Spaniel]] - Full Title: The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic About Crimea - URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIE1g8kqIpk ## Ghostreader Summary Ukraine is increasingly optimistic that it will eventually regain control of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. This is due to the strategic and political decisions made by Russia during the nine months of fighting with Ukraine, which suggests that the Russian position in Crimea is weakening. Crimea is militarily important, as it is home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and the demographics have shifted towards Russia since the annexation. Ukraine is optimistic due to the fact that Russia is struggling to maintain control of the peninsula, and the lack of progress towards NATO membership for Ukraine has removed any long-term incentives for Russia to continue the war. Ukraine may be able to take Crimea without a major military push if it can create a wedge in Zaporizhzhia and cut off the land bridge from Russia to Crimea. ## Highlights - if NATO expansion truly were the cause  of the war, everything should be over by now.If anything, loitering around has only increased  the non-NATO Western support for Ukraine.And that is not some sort of vague  theoretical assertion either.Remember, this is exactly how the  2008 Russo-Georgian War played out.Georgia started flirting with NATO membership,Russia propped up Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia generally became less stable,NATO lost interest in expanding to Georgia,and the war ended, with Russia even withdrawing  from areas it had invaded past the  borders of the separatist regions.The entire arc lasted just twelve days in August,and support for Georgian membership  in NATO is now a distant memory.Meanwhile, back in 2022, we are sitting at 300  something days of war. That’s not  a good sign for the NATO theory. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01gmg5zqtjfayd26ma33jk7asy)) - The other main public objection Russia had at the  start of the war was control  over Luhansk and Donetsk.In fact, the war began with Russia  formally recognizing the regions  as independent countries, complete  with this fancy signing ceremony.  The initial phase of the war appeared to lend some  credence to this being Moscow’s motivating factor,with less direct focus on Crimea, and more attention in the Donbas,where Russian troops extended  past Luhansk up north,and moved south into Mariupol,  Donetsk’s second largest city.But September shattered that illusion. After a  series of artillery barrages against a handful  of river crossings in Kherson, Russia no  longer had mobility for its defensive units.Ukraine forced Moscow to decide whether to  defend its gains in the north or in the south.Russia chose … the south, which  up until this point has nothing   to do with the separatist story, and  Ukraine made substantial gains up north. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01gmg617n9gttknghekvmvn4xc)) - Let’s review. Russia does not  care about Ukraine’s NATO status. It cares relatively little about the  separatist regions in the Donbas.  It has suffered an estimated 100,000 dead  or injured since the start of the war.And it has made no attempt to retreat  to the January 2022 borders to stem  the bleeding and entice Western states  to press Kyiv to the negotiating table.The simplest way to explain all  of these observable features of  the war is that the situation in  Crimea is a gigantic disaster. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01gmg62jy4rdkrz606kxb84v9z))